I wasn’t quite prepared to take a deep dive into Grenadian political analysis just yet because of time and being on the road so much lately, and not being able to inform myself adequately about several things.
To frame the context, it must be understood that Justin Pierre, a good friend of mine, is not a pollster; at best, I describe him as a Projection Analyst.
I do a level of projection analysis myself, too – but the basis of my framing is not just on historical data, but what current polling indicators, and in many jurisdictions, I have the advantage of seeing the figures from both sides (from their scientific polling and canvassing information) to be able to compare and contrast.
Pierre’s methods are not scientifically sound, at best, and questionable at worst. Some in the regional data collection and polling stratosphere put it even worse than that.
If he is guilty of anything, it is colorful data analysis laundering.
And I am developing this context not necessarily to reign on his parade, but as a basis for understanding.
My concerns about some of his work are not so much about what he has done in Grenada, but about what he has done in many other jurisdictions.
His “polling” – and lord knows where it came from- told Ralph Gonsalves he was going to win the Southern Grenadines – a seat Unity Labour Party in St Vincent and the Grenadines had never won, even in its best days; and the last time was some of its worst days.
Three days before the elections, and up to midday on polling day, Gonsalves told me he was not only winning the election but taking the southern Grenadines with him.
All his proper pollsters were telling him, up to three months before the vote, that he was in an absolute crisis – at best, he might take three seats, but it seemed likely (as it turned out) that it would be one.
Then came the Pierre “poll”.
We have just seen in another jurisdiction (which shall be nameless for now) where such bonkers analysis is being proffered based on supposed “polls” that, even given the limited reported methods, are neither scientific nor make basic common sense.
But coming back to his latest “analysis” in Grenada.
First of all, based on the real polling we have seen and the reporting of other polling that we have been briefed on, nobody is winning 10 seats at this juncture; nobody is winning eight, for that matter.
There is a lot of fluidity in some areas and many opportunities, especially with a significant base of people who are not yet engaged in the process.
When polling shows huge amounts of ‘wont say’ or ‘don’t know’, it normally means there are more opportunities for challengers than for incumbents; that, too, is something all in the game must watch.
Based on the data – and the actual feelings on the ground – anyone wanting to suggest that someone is winning – and even so – winning handsomely, is trying to sell you a bridge. Don’t buy it. They don’t own it.
There could be a point at which the race breaks decisively. That is always a possibility. That’s what campaigning is about, because things are never ever static.
There are some interesting factors and many moving parts that may make this upcoming campaign different from what we have known in the modern era. And as of today, there are three or four different scenarios that can play out. (But that’s not my remit to talk about those here).
In regard to the New National Party, where it stands now – based on the average of the polling I have seen or been briefed on - it is at best comfortable with three, perhaps even four seats. There are other opportunities elsewhere – but if they seize on those, it will depend on many factors – positioning, messaging, structure, ground game, financing – and also hoping for some opponent’s missteps.
That also rings true for all the others in the space, however.
But regarding specifics – NNP’s “surest” seats remain St George’s North West (Adrian Joseph) and St Mark’s (Myanna Charles). It is doing well and leading in St Patrick’s East (Robert Whyte). St Andrew’s North East (Kate Lewis) is its best seat in St Andrew’s. For St Andrew’s South East (Emmalin Pierre), it is tighter than maybe the NNP political leader would like at this stage, but, as leader, if she gets to the right strategies, she should pull it off.
At this stage, that’s five, ranging from solid to “should be ok.”
This Justin Pierre theory that somehow NNP is leading in St Andrew’s North West is bonkers stuff of the Southern Grenadines variety.
At this stage, St Andrew’s North West (Delma Thomas) is one of the four strongest seats of the incumbent National Democratic Congress – behind St Davids (Dickon Mitchell, St George’s South (Andy Williams), and St George’s North East (Ron Redhead).
It is interesting that Pierre did not have St John’s. NNP is potentially more competitive there than it is in St Patrick’s East or Carriacou, for example, even though, of course, not winning it at this stage.
In terms of the national general, there is a third force factor, which throws up many scenarios as well.
Anyone discounting it is guilty of political malpractice. (The polling doesn’t).
