Linda, girl ''well, wey you?"

"Well wey you?"

I was looking back at my whatsapp, and those were the last three words I sent to Linda Straker a few weeks ago. Initially, after a few previous messages went unanswered, I just assumed she was somewhere out in the world—attending another course or seminar. But when subsequently I sent another message, I needed an urgent answer, and nothing, then came the "well wey you."

Called her phone -- ready to rant and rave -- and waiting for her mischievous laugh in response -- and still nothing. Until I was told she is not doing too well.

When the update came last week, we knew deep down -- even though still hoping for a miracle - that she is in her last days. But even when it happens -- the moment still hits you like a ton of bricks.

Like some things in life, you will always remember where you were when you heard the news - boarding a flight and getting that text from Rawle Titus. I watched it; watched it again, and then a third time -- and then did nothing. Just froze. It took me over 10 minutes just to acknowledge the message.

No one around us had a bigger appetite for research and advocacy; for tracking down stories with meaning and consequence; for listening to every sitting of parliament and finding interesting stories that many of us might have missed. No one challenged me more at 6 oclock in the morning with a "Well Mark..why you dont" kind of call, or with some story she is working on, seeking clarity on a few things.

Many times, referencing something published in the Government Gazette that needed watching, follow-through, etc. I used to quiz, "Girl, it still has that?" or sometimes "I tell you alone reading that thing."

I did an overnight Linda Straker search on facebook, and while we knew it in real time, it sort of cemented it starkly, of how much, unfairly, she was taken on and in many times viciously and unfairly challenged and even attacked, mostly by political actors, who had a difficult time dealing with truth and real, researched journalism.

And while we spoke a million times privately about it, I was just wondering if we didn't fail her somehow by not publicly helping her deal with some of it. But I can hear her, "Mark me aint bothering with that, you know."

I never made it to her place in St. John's - always saying you were up that side and "aint pass my me." I used to joke, "girl you living too far from Munich" and "you want your man and them to kidnap me or what?" with which she would often respond with that laugh of hers

We used to engage in banter and old talk and share some lewd jokes -- many of them unpublishable. But every now and then had those very intellectual debates about sometimes random things.

I first became aware of Linda Straker at Grenadian Voice - when, even though I was no longer in full-time at the newspaper, I went in every now and then at Mr Leslie Pierre's request to give some editorial help. I remember a couple of initial pieces, then I had to ask Mr Pierre, " who is this?" and quipping after reading them, "she look has some promise."

Promise kept!

I have never understood death -- and I have given up trying a long time. Sometimes I just resort to asking myself what the point of life is, and I am sure Nicole Best and others will have some theological point, that I will completely miss again.

In our profession, we need to provide answers. But sometimes we fail. Sometimes we ask questions we dont even understand. Maybe that is the point of the question -- to be both confused and amazed at the same time.

What was the question again Linda?

Here is my answer -- if it doesn't lead to another question - you did good, so now walk good!

"So wey you dey?"

A much better place - no more pain; no more suffering. And they can't hound you again!

Of bonkers theory and political malpractice

 I wasn’t quite prepared to take a deep dive into Grenadian political analysis just yet because of time and being on the road so much lately, and not being able to inform myself adequately about several things.

   But I just thought that I would dip my feet into the water at this juncture – after having heard about and finally “studied” at daybreak the latest Justin Pierre analysis of the current political state of play.

   To frame the context, it must be understood that Justin Pierre, a good friend of mine, is not a pollster; at best, I describe him as a Projection Analyst.

   I do a level of projection analysis myself, too – but the basis of my framing is not just on historical data, but what current polling indicators, and in many jurisdictions, I have the advantage of seeing the figures from both sides (from their scientific polling and canvassing information) to be able to compare and contrast.

   Pierre’s methods are not scientifically sound, at best, and questionable at worst. Some in the regional data collection and polling stratosphere put it even worse than that.

   If he is guilty of anything, it is colorful data analysis laundering.

   And I am developing this context not necessarily to reign on his parade, but as a basis for understanding.

   My concerns about some of his work are not so much about what he has done in Grenada, but about what he has done in many other jurisdictions.

   His “polling” – and lord knows where it came from- told Ralph Gonsalves he was going to win the Southern Grenadines – a seat Unity Labour Party in St Vincent and the Grenadines had never won, even in its best days; and the last time was some of its worst days.

   Three days before the elections, and up to midday on polling day, Gonsalves told me he was not only winning the election but taking the southern Grenadines with him.

   All his proper pollsters were telling him, up to three months before the vote, that he was in an absolute crisis – at best, he might take three seats, but it seemed likely (as it turned out) that it would be one.

   Then came the Pierre “poll”.

    We have just seen in another jurisdiction (which shall be nameless for now) where such bonkers analysis is being proffered based on supposed “polls” that, even given the limited reported methods, are neither scientific nor make basic common sense.

   But coming back to his latest “analysis” in Grenada.

   First of all, based on the real polling we have seen and the reporting of other polling that we have been briefed on, nobody is winning 10 seats at this juncture; nobody is winning eight, for that matter.

   There is a lot of fluidity in some areas and many opportunities, especially with a significant base of people who are not yet engaged in the process.

   When polling shows huge amounts of ‘wont say’ or ‘don’t know’, it normally means there are more opportunities for challengers than for incumbents; that, too, is something all in the game must watch.

  Based on the data – and the actual feelings on the ground – anyone wanting to suggest that someone is winning – and even so – winning handsomely, is trying to sell you a bridge. Don’t buy it. They don’t own it.

   There could be a point at which the race breaks decisively. That is always a possibility. That’s what campaigning is about, because things are never ever static.

    There are some interesting factors and many moving parts that may make this upcoming campaign different from what we have known in the modern era. And as of today, there are three or four different scenarios that can play out. (But that’s not my remit to talk about those here).

   In regard to the New National Party, where it stands now – based on the average of the polling I have seen or been briefed on - it is at best comfortable with three, perhaps even four seats. There are other opportunities elsewhere – but if they seize on those, it will depend on many factors – positioning, messaging, structure, ground game, financing – and also hoping for some opponent’s missteps.

   That also rings true for all the others in the space, however.

   But regarding specifics – NNP’s “surest” seats remain St George’s North West (Adrian Joseph) and St Mark’s (Myanna Charles). It is doing well and leading in St Patrick’s East (Robert Whyte). St Andrew’s North East (Kate Lewis) is its best seat in St Andrew’s. For St Andrew’s South East (Emmalin Pierre), it is tighter than maybe the NNP political leader would like at this stage, but, as leader, if she gets to the right strategies, she should pull it off.

   At this stage, that’s five, ranging from solid to “should be ok.”

   This Justin Pierre theory that somehow NNP is leading in St Andrew’s North West is bonkers stuff of the Southern Grenadines variety.

   At this stage, St Andrew’s North West (Delma Thomas) is one of the four strongest seats of the incumbent National Democratic Congress – behind St Davids (Dickon Mitchell, St George’s  South (Andy Williams), and St George’s North East (Ron Redhead).

   It is interesting that Pierre did not have St John’s. NNP is potentially more competitive there than it is in St Patrick’s East or Carriacou, for example, even though, of course, not winning it at this stage.

   In terms of the national general, there is a third force factor, which throws up many scenarios as well.

 
Anyone discounting it is guilty of political malpractice. (The polling doesn’t).